Speaker of the House Paul Ryan recently announced that he will not seek reelection in the 2018 midterm elections.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) announced his resignation on April 12, citing his desire to spend more time with his family. The likelier reason is that Mr. Ryan is afraid that the Democrats will gain a majority in the House of Representatives, meaning that he would have to cede the Speaker’s gavel for the much less powerful position of Minority Leader. Mr. Ryan’s fears are well-founded: Democrats should expect to regain the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms.
Recently, enthusiasm and passion for liberal causes has soared, demonstrating newfound support for the Democratic Party and its values; the #MeToo movement and the aftermath of the Parkland shooting have generated a lot of grassroots liberal support. The increased political activism of younger voters with the March for Our Lives will likely increase the turnout rate of millennials, a predominantly liberal generation. Moreover, the midterm elections are oftentimes considered a report card on the president’s performance. Because of President Trump P’00’s low approval rating and the difficulty that Republicans have in separating themselves politically from the president, liberal and independent voters dissatisfied with Mr. Trump will take out their anger at Republican candidates in the midterms. This will yield results similar to the 2010 midterms when Tea Party conservatives were outraged by the increased government interference associated with Obamacare. The growth of liberal enthusiasm will generate the grassroots support and voter turnout necessary to flip the House blue.
Union workers also seem to be reviving their support of the Democratic Party. Democrat Connor Lamb’s victory in the deep red and unionized Pennsylvania 18th District Special Election last month largely is attributed to the steel union’s renewed support for Democrats. While steel workers are among the few manufacturers who benefit from Mr. Trump’s recent trade war, districts that stand to suffer from the trade war—especially manufacturing districts that do not produce steel or aluminum––will most likely also start supporting Democrats.
This year, the Democrats are running a successful fundraising operation. More than eighty Democrats in Republican-held districts had raised at least $250,000 by the end of 2017, and 55 have outraised their respective Republican opponent, despite the fact that the Republican Party nationally has a slight advantage in fundraising over Democrats. Donations to specific candidates are oftentimes more important than donations to the national political organizations because direct donations to candidates indicate grassroots support within the district for that candidate. Citizens typically donate to candidates who they truly believe in, so more grassroots donations translate into more volunteers and a higher turnout rate for that candidate. The outside source of money can help purchase advertisements and pay staff members, but these purchases are less important than the local support that large donations indicate. Connor Lamb, the victor in the Pennsylvania 18th, outraised his opponent by a 5-to-1 margin, indicating widespread local support. The Republican National Committee dumped $9 million into the race, yet Lamb, with the higher amount of local donations, but less money overall, still prevailed. Democrats are receiving funding from the source that actually matters: the voters.
In addition to political activism and strong funding, new gerrymandering laws in Pennsylvania will also help flip the House. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania ruled that the Congressional districts in that state were unconstitutionally gerrymandered to favor Republicans, forcing a redistricting process to balance out the number of Democratic and Republican congressman. The new districts are more compact, more competitive, and more of them are majority Democrat. Just as a result of the Pennsylvania redistricting, Democrats can expect to pick up four seats out of the twenty-four they need to flip the House.
Republicans in the House know that a Blue wave is about to hit them, causing about forty Republicans, including Mr. Ryan, to announce their resignations. This mass exodus of Republican incumbents has created its own problem for the Republicans. Ninety-seven percent of incumbents won reelection in 2014, so the advantage that accompanies incumbency is undoubtedly real. Since many of the retiring Republicans are from competitive districts, these districts will be much easier for Democrats to flip. By comparison, fewer than twenty Democrats have announced their retirement.
Mr. Ryan’s resignation is confirmation of the Republican Party’s well-founded fear that Democrats will retake the House in 2018. Mr. Ryan would rather leave Congress altogether than try to fight for Mr. Trump’s agenda against a Democratic majority. Similarly, when the blue wave arrives, it will bring with it obstruction of Mr. Trump’s plans and hopes of impeachment.
